The Gooden Report: Luxury & Lakeshore Real Estate
Week of October 19, 2026
By David Gooden | The Dane Arthur Real Estate Agency & LakePlace.com
More homes to choose from. More time to make a decision. And more reason for sellers to get their pricing right.
That is the picture emerging across Minnesota’s housing market as we move deeper into fall. Newly released September figures show fewer buyers signing purchase agreements, growing inventory, and longer market times. Luxury and waterfront properties remain distinctive markets, but they are feeling the effects of changing buyer behavior, too.
For buyers and sellers in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the opportunity comes from understanding what is happening in your particular market – and making decisions based on current competition, financing costs, and your own goals.
Minnesota Buyers Have More Choices and More Negotiating Room
According to Minnesota Realtors’ September housing report, released October 16, pending sales fell 11.5% statewide compared with September 2025. In the Twin Cities, pending sales declined 11.7%. Pending sales measure signed purchase agreements, making them an important early indicator of future closings.
At the same time, Minnesota’s inventory increased 12.9% to 21,090 homes, reaching a seven-year high. Statewide supply rose to 3.7 months, while the Twin Cities reached 3.2 months.
Those supply levels remain below the five to six months commonly associated with a balanced market. Even so, buyers have more options than they did a year ago, and sellers are facing more competition.
For buyers, that can create opportunities to negotiate price, request repairs, and evaluate properties more carefully. For sellers, it makes thoughtful preparation and accurate pricing especially important.
What Is Happening With Luxury and Waterfront Homes?
The September report showed sales above $1 million down 2.2% year over year, while private-waterfront sales declined 9.8%. These figures suggest that the upper end of the market and waterfront properties are also experiencing slower activity.
However, statewide statistics are only a starting point. A home on Lake Minnetonka may compete in a very different market from a property on the Whitefish Chain, a northern Wisconsin lake, or a smaller lake near the Twin Cities.
Shoreline quality, water depth, lake access, privacy, condition, and the availability of comparable properties all influence how a lake home competes. In the luxury market, architecture, finish quality, location, and the overall ownership experience matter as well.
My advice is to look closely at what buyers can purchase today within your lake and price range. Recent sales help establish value, while competing listings and newly signed purchase agreements help explain where the market is heading.
Home Prices and Buyer Demand Are Telling Different Stories
Minnesota’s statewide median sale price declined 0.7% year over year to $354,900 in September. The Twin Cities median increased 1.3% to $395,000.
That combination is important: prices can remain relatively steady even as transaction activity slows. A positive price headline does not necessarily mean every seller is receiving strong traffic or multiple offers.
Statewide, homes took 56 cumulative days to reach an accepted offer, up 14.3% from a year earlier. Sellers received an average of 96.8% of their original asking price, compared with 97.5% last September.
These are broad market averages, not a formula for pricing an individual property. But they reinforce the importance of reviewing buyer feedback and competing inventory early, rather than waiting for market time to accumulate.
Mortgage Rates Remain an Important Factor
Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from the previous week. The pause followed seven consecutive weekly increases. A year earlier, the average was 6.27%.
Actual financing terms vary by borrower, lender, loan amount, and property use. Jumbo mortgages and second-home loans may carry different rates and requirements from the national benchmark.
If you are buying a luxury home or lake property, update your financing numbers before making an offer. Consider the full cost of ownership, including property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and any seasonal expenses.
For sellers, understanding today’s financing environment can help when evaluating offers. Depending on the buyer’s loan program and lender requirements, a closing-cost contribution or rate-buydown arrangement may be worth comparing with a price adjustment.
What Wisconsin Buyers and Sellers Should Watch
As of October 19, the Wisconsin Realtors Association’s latest published statewide monthly report still covered August. I will be watching its September release for signs of whether the slowdown reported in August continued into fall.
Until that report is available, it is important to evaluate Wisconsin properties using current local sales and listing activity. Statewide Minnesota figures should not be applied directly to Wisconsin lake markets.
For waterfront buyers and sellers, the most useful questions remain local: How many comparable homes are available? Which properties are attracting offers? How long are they taking to sell? And what features are buyers willing to pay a premium to obtain?
What I Would Focus on as a Seller
- Understand your competition. Review the properties buyers are comparing with yours today.
- Make the value clear. Pricing, presentation, photography, and property information should work together.
- Respond to the evidence. Showing activity, feedback, and competing sales can help determine whether an adjustment is needed.
- Compare the cost of waiting. Consider carrying costs and your timeline when deciding whether to sell this fall or wait for another season.
What I Would Focus on as a Buyer
- Keep financing current. Confirm your purchasing power using today’s rates and loan terms.
- Use the additional choice. Compare location, condition, ownership costs, and long-term suitability.
- Negotiate with supporting information. Comparable sales and current competition provide a stronger foundation than a general market headline.
- Recognize exceptional properties. A slower overall market does not guarantee that a rare property will remain available.
A Local Strategy Matters More Than Ever
My view is that this fall’s market rewards informed decisions. Buyers have more room to evaluate their options, and sellers benefit from a clear understanding of where their property fits.
Whether you are considering a luxury home, a year-round lake residence, or a seasonal retreat, I can help you evaluate the relevant sales, competing properties, and practical considerations before you make your next move.
If you are thinking about buying or selling, contact me for a conversation about your property and your goals.
David Gooden
Luxury & Lakeshore Real Estate
The Dane Arthur Real Estate Agency | LakePlace.com
Sources and reporting dates:
Minnesota Realtors: September 2026 Housing Market Report, released October 16, 2026;
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 15, 2026;
Wisconsin Realtors Association Home Sales Reports, checked October 19, 2026.
Unless otherwise stated, reported market changes compare September 2026 with September 2025. Statewide and metro figures cover broad housing markets and do not establish the value of an individual property. Data may be revised.